Post by account_disabled on Jan 8, 2024 20:14:20 GMT -8
As predicted, consumption will plummet this year due to the pandemic and savings will be the great ally of the most affected families. Although supermarkets were empty in March due to the social alarm caused by confinement, compared to 2019 the figure will be reduced by 14%. This is recognized in a BBVA Research study based on forecasts for the second half of 2020. Even so, the outlook is not entirely negative, since according to experts, expenses will increase by 7% in 2021 , which will favor economic recovery. This is given by the purchasing capacity of households and the stagnant demand in 2020. 2020 has been a difficult year in every sense , and this is also shown in the consequences. The BBVA study states that the drop in consumption is due to two reasons: – On the one hand, the deterioration of income and the loss of wealth in families that have not been able to take advantage of income support policies, such as ERTE or the benefit for cessation of activity for self-employed workers.
Secondly, BBVA points to the rebound in savings . Restrictions adopted to prevent the spread of the virus and widespread uncertainty have made most people more rigorous when it comes to spending. Especially Email Data due to the poor perspective of households regarding their economic situation, which has made saving the most common technique this year. In numbers, and according to the BBVA report, the proportion of income that households have saved exceeded 22% in the second quarter . A fairly high figure considering that the previous year it was 15%. Therefore, even though consumption decreases by 14% in 2020, the perception is that it will grow by 7% in 2021 . A figure that is shown as incomplete and to which we must add the forecast that spending will continue to be 5% lower than the 2019 figure.
The effects of the pandemic on services and durable goods The reduction is not only perceived in services, but also points to durable goods, which decreased in two quarters the same as during the 2008-2012 crisis. As for the rest of the products, services and basic necessities fell much more in four months than during the Great Recession . The second half of 2020, on the other hand, sees a rebound in purchases of goods, in addition to some services . This last category does not include hospitality, leisure or travel, due to pandemic restrictions. Despite everything, BBVA Research is betting on a recovery that will continue next year. Regarding the automotive sector , according to Cinco Días , it is suggested that the expected growth in per capita income and the absorption of a part of the demand for passenger cars that has been built up during this year will boost sales in 2021 . This will be especially in the second semester. Although if the Renove 2020 Plan were extended next year, sales could increase by up to 80,000 additional units, as stated by BBVA Research.
Secondly, BBVA points to the rebound in savings . Restrictions adopted to prevent the spread of the virus and widespread uncertainty have made most people more rigorous when it comes to spending. Especially Email Data due to the poor perspective of households regarding their economic situation, which has made saving the most common technique this year. In numbers, and according to the BBVA report, the proportion of income that households have saved exceeded 22% in the second quarter . A fairly high figure considering that the previous year it was 15%. Therefore, even though consumption decreases by 14% in 2020, the perception is that it will grow by 7% in 2021 . A figure that is shown as incomplete and to which we must add the forecast that spending will continue to be 5% lower than the 2019 figure.
The effects of the pandemic on services and durable goods The reduction is not only perceived in services, but also points to durable goods, which decreased in two quarters the same as during the 2008-2012 crisis. As for the rest of the products, services and basic necessities fell much more in four months than during the Great Recession . The second half of 2020, on the other hand, sees a rebound in purchases of goods, in addition to some services . This last category does not include hospitality, leisure or travel, due to pandemic restrictions. Despite everything, BBVA Research is betting on a recovery that will continue next year. Regarding the automotive sector , according to Cinco Días , it is suggested that the expected growth in per capita income and the absorption of a part of the demand for passenger cars that has been built up during this year will boost sales in 2021 . This will be especially in the second semester. Although if the Renove 2020 Plan were extended next year, sales could increase by up to 80,000 additional units, as stated by BBVA Research.